3 World Cup Upsets That Could Actually Happen

Scenario A: Japan Reaches the Semifinals

You think this is crazy? Japan beat Germany 2-1 in 2022. Then beat Spain 2-1. In the SAME tournament. They topped a group with two of the last three World Cup winners. This isn't a fluke — it's a pattern.

Japan at around 40.00 to win is generous. But reaching the semifinals? That's a different conversation. Japan thrives when bigger opponents underestimate them.

"Japan has beaten Germany and Spain in back-to-back World Cups. At some point, we have to stop calling it luck."

Scenario B: Morocco Does It Again

In 2022, Morocco became the first African nation to reach a World Cup semifinal. They beat Belgium, Spain, and Portugal. Cristiano Ronaldo walked down the tunnel in tears. Now their 2026 squad is even better — Hakimi, Bono, and new young attacking talent. They've proven they can beat anyone. At 50.00 odds, the market still isn't taking them seriously.

Scenario C: Canada Becomes the Story

Canada is hosting. They have Alphonso Davies — the best left-back in the world. Jonathan David scores goals for fun. Ismael Kone is breaking out. And most importantly: host nations ALWAYS overperform. South Korea reached semis as co-hosts. Russia made quarters. Canada has the talent to capitalize on that energy.

The Bottom Line

Nobody's saying these three will lift the trophy. But deep tournament runs? Absolutely possible. The World Cup is built on upsets — every tournament has at least one team that goes way further than predicted. In 2026, it could be all three.