With kickoff days away, Opta's supercomputer has run thousands of simulations. Spain leads. The US and Japan share a slim 1.2%. And five teams — including 2022 host Qatar — sit at a literal 0.0% chance to lift the trophy.

The Favorites: Spain Takes the Crown (For Now)

Opta's model — which simulates the tournament thousands of times factoring in squad strength, historical performance, and draw difficulty — gives Spain the edge at 16.1%. They're coming off a Euro 2024 title and their core is terrifyingly young and deep.

France, led by Mbappé, sits at 13.0%. England (11.2%), Argentina (10.4%), and Portugal (7.0%) round out the top five.

Opta World Cup 2026 win probability chart

The Full Leaderboard: Who's Got a Shot

Rank	Team	Win Probability
1	🇪🇸 Spain	16.1%
2	🇫🇷 France	13.0%
3	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England	11.2%
4	🇦🇷 Argentina	10.4%
5	🇵🇹 Portugal	7.0%
6	🇧🇷 Brazil	6.6%
7	🇩🇪 Germany	5.1%
8	🇳🇱 Netherlands	3.6%
9	🇳🇴 Norway	3.5%
10	🇧🇪 Belgium	2.4%

The Norway Factor

Here's the surprise: Norway at #9 with a 3.5% chance. Norway hasn't been to a World Cup since 1998 — but when you have Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard, the math changes.

Norway at 3.5% is either prophetic or we'll pretend we never saw it.

The Long Shots Worth Watching

Rank	Team	Probability
17	🇯🇵 Japan	1.2%
17	🇺🇸 United States	1.2%
26	🇰🇷 South Korea	0.4%
29	🇦🇺 Australia	0.3%

Japan and the US tied at 1.2% is interesting. The US has home-field advantage across multiple venues. Japan has been quietly building one of the most technically disciplined squads in the tournament.

The 0% Club: Five Teams With No Shot

Five nations got the coldest number possible: 0.0%.

🇨🇩 DR Congo | 🇨🇻 Cape Verde | 🇶🇦 Qatar | 🇭🇹 Haiti | 🇨🇼 Curaçao

For Qatar, this is particularly rough — the only 2022 host nation in the 0% club.

To be fair, Leicester City had 5000-to-1 odds in 2016. Zero percent is just a number.

Why Predictions Are Fun — and Mostly Wrong

Spain at 16.1% means there's an 83.9% chance they don't win. Somebody outside the top 5 almost always makes a deep run.

The supercomputer says Spain. Football says: "We'll see about that."

Key Takeaways

The Favorites: Spain Takes the Crown (For Now)

The Full Leaderboard: Who's Got a Shot

The Norway Factor

The Long Shots Worth Watching

The 0% Club: Five Teams With No Shot

Why Predictions Are Fun — and Mostly Wrong

Frequently Asked Questions

Who does Opta predict to win World Cup 2026?

Which teams have 0% chance to win the 2026 World Cup according to Opta?

What are the USA's chances of winning World Cup 2026?

Why is Norway ranked so high in World Cup predictions?

Are World Cup prediction models accurate?

norway haaland world cup

A Supercomputer Just Picked the World Cup Winner — And 5 Teams Have a 0% Chance