Six different predictions. Six different methodologies. And somehow, four of them landed on the same answer — Spain. The 2026 World Cup forecasting industry has already declared a spreadsheet champion before kickoff.

Goldman Sachs: Spain by a Mile (25.7%)

The investment bank built a statistical model covering 20,000 international matches since 1978, ran 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations, and factored in scoring talent, momentum, psychology, geography, and a "football nation" bonus.

Result: Spain wins 25.7% of simulations. France is second at 18.9%, with Argentina, Brazil, and the Netherlands rounding out the top five.

Goldman Sachs prediction model showing Spain as top favorite

OPTA Supercomputer: Spain Again (16.1%)

OPTA ran 10,000 tournament simulations and landed on Spain at 16.1%. Their model highlights Spain's favorable bracket path through Group H. France slots in at 13% for second.

OPTA gives five teams exactly 0.0% probability. Respectfully — find a second team.

OPTA supercomputer probability chart for World Cup contenders

Pew Research Center: 66% of Americans Don't Care

Pew surveyed 3,507 Americans and found 66% are "not very interested." Only 14% said they're paying close attention. Among those who care, Spain leads with 9% support.

The USMNT has home-field advantage and only 7% of respondents believed in them. That's brutal.

Pew Research poll on World Cup interest and predictions

Transfermarkt: Spain — But England Is Right Behind

Transfermarkt puts Spain at #1 and England at #2, arguing Spain's possession-based style is the most technically advanced system in the tournament — driven largely by player market values.

Transfermarkt World Cup odds and predictions

The Contrarians

EA Sports: Portugal Finally Gets Its Moment

EA simulated the tournament using its player database and picked Portugal winning their first-ever World Cup. EA correctly predicted the last four World Cup winners in official sims.

EA Sports World Cup simulation — Portugal as champions

Joachim Clement: Netherlands

German economist Joachim Clement called Germany 2014, France 2018, and Argentina 2022. For 2026 his model spits out a Netherlands vs Portugal final, with the Netherlands winning.

Clement told the BBC that player quality and weather might explain only 50% of the outcome — the other 50% is luck.

The Scoreboard

Predictor	Champion Pick	Runner-Up / #2
Goldman Sachs	🇪🇸 Spain (25.7%)	France (18.9%)
OPTA	🇪🇸 Spain (16.1%)	France (13%)
Pew Research	🇪🇸 Spain (9%)	Brazil / Argentina (8%)
Transfermarkt	🇪🇸 Spain	England
EA Sports	🇵🇹 Portugal	—
Clement Model	🇳🇱 Netherlands	Portugal

Four of six independent predictors landed on Spain. EA and Clement disagree — and a supermajority of Americans don't care who wins as long as the beer is cold.

Markets predicted Hillary Clinton in 2016. Football markets can groupthink too.

We'll know the truth in about five weeks.

Key Takeaways

Goldman Sachs: Spain by a Mile (25.7%)

OPTA Supercomputer: Spain Again (16.1%)

Pew Research Center: 66% of Americans Don't Care

Transfermarkt: Spain — But England Is Right Behind

The Contrarians

EA Sports: Portugal Finally Gets Its Moment

Joachim Clement: Netherlands

The Scoreboard

Frequently Asked Questions

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